THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE Estimates (NIE) is a contradiction in terms that lacks precision—thanks to this Administration.

It also seems to cause more heat than light. Do you really think the NIE is a true document of unvarnished intelligence? If it’s an intelligence report, then why is it being released publicly?

The truth is this: once it’s released, it’s no longer an intelligence report. It’s a political tool for this White House and its supporters—the donors and special interests that put Mr. Bush in the White House—who are trying to defend their mismanagement of the war.

Don’t think I’m just a Bush-basher. Mr. Bush is not the first to sacrifice the nation’s security for special interests or political gain. Read Bob Baer’s book See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA's War on Terrorism in which he accuses the Clinton Administration of stopping CIA operations in the Middle East and China to not upset major deals for American oil companies.

Unfortunately, the majority of the media bites and swallows this so-called intelligence information—without any context. Sure, we heard the Democrats howling about the NIE while the GOP tries to defend it. That’s not context; that’s picking out bits of information to use for political gains.

The problem is this: everyone is throwing around the term al Qaeda—which means different things.

Stratfor Intelligence (www.stratfor.com) points this out, ironically, in a detailed report released just a few days before the NIE was released. (To read this report, you must subscribe to Stratfor.)

Stratfor breaks down the different ways the term al Qaeda is used. First, there is Al Qaeda Prime. This is the core of the terror organization, consisting of Osama bin Laden and his nearest henchmen. These people are the strategists and the motivation. But clearly, Stratfor tells us, this core group has remained intact and yet shut off from any infiltration. They’re not recruiting since they know their bunker-like mentality has kept them alive.

This entrenchment also leaves Al Qaeda Prime out of touch with followers and cells that are forming in places like Europe and Asia. These novices also use the term al Qaeda. But truly they’re al Qaeda Lite. They have no direct connection to bin Laden. It’s impossible to meet with him. And these wannabes have not trained in al Qaeda camps which don’t exist as they did in the 1990s. Look at the results of their recent efforts—botched attacks; nothing like 9/11. It would be similar to someone trying to convince you his kid plays for the Yankees when the kid’s little league team happens to have the same name of the team from The Bronx.

Who’s right? I don’t know. Are there future attacks being planned on the United States? Of course. Are these attackers capable of damage? Yes, but not like before. However, with time and adaptation, they could be more lethal and in our midst.

The point of my report is this. Get all the information. Understand what is being used as political propaganda.

Here’s the bottom line. The American Iraq operation is a failure so far. Get over it. That’s old news that will be used for political campaigns.

Instead, let’s face the consequences—which are not good. If we pull out completely, there will be a regional war that will cause economic problems for us. (Did you forget the reason we’re in Iraq is oil?) Supply of crude and gasoline are down while demand is still high; lower that supply and we could be looking at more than five dollars a gallon at the pumps.

If we stay there, we will also help al Qaeda Lite and other extremists recruit more young people willing to kill or be killed. In reality, most of these lost souls want to fight on their own soil for their own regional glory. Still, some of them may have bin Laden’s global desires for a Caliphate as they gain terror sophistication in their own backyard.

No matter what we do—stay, pull out, or some of both—there will be a terrorist attack on American soil. How lethal remains to be seen.