Controversial Hands - Part II 

In my last column, I explained that my co-author Jim Brier and I are doing a reprint of our book, Middle Limit Holdem Poker, and thus have the opportunity to change some of our answers to the many poker problems in it, if we wish. The problems in last issue's column and this one are from a set of nine that we took another look at, since they generated a lot of debate, with various experts on each side. In the end, we dropped only one problem from the book, and did not change our answers to any of the other problems (although some were rewritten for greater clarity). Here's a couple of the problems that generated controversy. I'll start with No. 3, since hands No. 1 and No. 2 were in my last column.

Hand No. 3 ($30-$60 game): You are in the big blind, holding the 10 6. Everyone limps in except two players. You get a free play. There is $240 in the pot and eight players. The flop is 6 4 2, giving you top pair, weak kicker. The small blind checks. What should you do?

Answer in book: Check. With seven opponents, it is not a good idea to bet top pair, weak kicker when there are three cards clustered together on the flop. Even if your hand is good, it cannot take any heat, and does not figure to hold up. You should check. If you constantly lead into crowds on these kinds of hands, you will find yourself frequently getting raised.

What some critics have said: You should bet your top pair. You are very vulnerable to overcards and must protect your hand. Furthermore, you got a free play in your big blind, so you could have anything, including a flopped straight. You can represent a bigger hand than you actually have.

Commentary: Your hand cannot be protected very well by betting. A prospective caller will be getting at least 9-to-1 pot odds to call, which is large enough to influence most players to call with even a skimpy hand like two overcards. It is extremely unlikely that when you bet, all seven opponents will dutifully fold. A decision on your part to bet does improve someone's chances of winning the pot a little bit, but that someone is unlikely to be you. One of the major themes of our book is that your play must be adjusted based on the number of opponents you have. Only an unrealistic optimist looks at the good pot odds without being concerned about the large field of contenders. Should you be extremely lucky and have the best hand after all the cards are out, chances are that someone else will actually win the pot anyway because you had to fold on account of heavy betting and/or a bad card arriving on the board. One pair gets a rough ride when there are seven opponents and a possible straight on the board - and all you have is a pair of sixes.

Hand No. 4 ($10-$20 game): You are on the button with the J 9. An early-position player, a middle-position player, and the cutoff limp in. You limp in as well, as does the small blind. There is $60 in the pot and six players. The flop is 6 3 2, giving you a flush draw with two overcards. Both blinds check, the early-position limper bets, the next guy folds, and the cutoff calls. You decide to just call, since your flush draw is only jack-high and your overcards are a bit shaky. The small blind folds, the big blind check-raises, and everyone calls. There is $140 in the pot and four players. The turn is the 6, pairing the top flop card. The big blind checks, the early-position limper bets, the cutoff folds, and you call. The big blind check-raises, and the limper calls. What should you do?

Answer in book: Fold. Actually, you should have folded when the board paired on the turn and a player bet, because there was strong betting on the flop, and your flush draw is only jack-high. The big blind's check-raise on the flop usually means two pair and sometimes a set. With the board now pairing, his check-raise on the turn likely means a full house. As an aside, the early-position limper may well be hanging around on a flush draw that is bigger than yours. An interesting way of looking at this problem would be to examine what percentage of the time the big blind must not be full to make calling worthwhile (ignoring the presence of a third player for the time being). There is $240 in the pot and it costs you another $20. These are pot odds of 12-to-1. The odds against hitting are 37-to-9. If you go through the math, you will discover that the big blind must not have a full house more than 40 percent of the time to make calling correct. But in this betting sequence, you will nearly always be looking at a full house. Couple this with the times that some of your outs give the big blind a full house and the times that the third player is drawing to a bigger flush, and you will conclude that folding has to be right. In the actual hand, the river card was the 7, completing the flush. The big blind had sixes full and the early-position limper had the A 10. The player was drawing dead - and hit.

What some critics have said: This problem got hotly debated. One critic stated that if he made the decision to call the turn bet, he would have to call the raise. Another one thought the pot is simply too large to be folding.

Commentary: The argument for calling a raise on the turn because you called the initial bet is weak. The check-raise on the turn simply confirms the fact that you are now badly beaten. One of the bigger mistakes made in poker is not to re-evaluate a situation when you get additional information. Making an initial bad call does not obligate you to tough it out when there is further bombardment.

While pot size can frequently overwhelm other considerations, if you are drawing dead, the pot size does not matter. When there is strong betting on the flop and the board pairs on the turn, you have to take into account that someone may well have filled up. Another worry when drawing to a non-nut flush is that the nut-flush draw is lurking. In these days of aggressive betting, the nut-flush draw is often one of the players doing the pounding when the betting gets strong. One should not be surprised at the actual layout of cards in this hand (nut flush and full house both out), given the way the betting went on the flop and the turn.