At the end of my recent post on the presidential predictions, I mentioned that a Hillary Clinton presidency will change the landscape of politics.

Let me expand on that and then refer you to a great posting I just read.

I first became aware of the shifting political foundation while reading The World is Flat by Tom Friedman.

He predicted that free-traders in both parties would find refuge with each other; Democrats who live on the coasts have more in common with business Republicans who want open markets worldwide. Meanwhile, unions, aligned with Democrats, would make better partners with Republicans who want tight borders and high tariffs. In fact, a survey of Republicans in October showed that 60% of Republicans think free-trade has hurt America.

Friedman is like a geologist predicting the future, not the present. So, this scenario might not happen soon, if at all. But look at the major issues of the past two years. They certainly offer some tectonic evidence.

The selling of ports management to Dubai saw Democrats and Republicans split and join folks from the other party. Who would think Sean Hannity and Hillary Clinton would agree that the ports shouldn’t be under the control of a Middle Eastern country?

Immigration is another party splitter. Border state liberals sound like conservatives asking for high fences and more surveillance. Meanwhile, business conservatives are willing to bend the immigration laws to get cheaper labor to improve their bottom lines.

Part of the crumbling of the political foundation comes from a concept called The Long Tail. It’s based on a ground-breaking book by the same name from Christopher Anderson, the editor of Wired Magazine.

On his site, Anderson writes about Newsweek picking up on The Long Tail phenomenon and Ron Paul. It’s worth the read.

For more information on the book, I’ve added my posting from April that calls Barrack Obama as the first Long Tail of the 2008.

"Barrack Long Tail"

LAS VEGAS, NV (April, 10, 2007) — Someone will say that is a racist headline. Actually, it’s a compliment to Senator Obama’s campaign. It also refers to a fantastic book you should read.

The book is The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More by Christopher Anderson. You can buy the book and also read Anderson’s blog at www.longtail.com.

Anderson shows how today’s technology is changing our economy drastically. To understand the “tail” reference, think of a graph that charts sales. At the upper left of the chart is the head – big and round. That curve represents the big sellers — or the blockbusters — as Anderson says. Following the 20-80 Rule, these products make up 20% of the products, but account for 80% of the sales.

The products that make up the remaining 80% are the tail — a long, narrow line that goes on and on. Again, taking the 20-80 Rule, there are so many more of these low-selling products – the stuff that would never make it on most store shelves.

However, Anderson says Internet technology has created a situation where the combined sales in that long tail of the un-blockbusters, so to speak, far exceed the sales of the blockbusters.

Anderson uses the music industry as an example. First, the Internet gives us more choices than our local record stores. We can now download all kinds of music — not just the stuff the radio DJ’s force into our ears. Next, the Internet also reduces retail, packaging and delivery costs – making products cheaper. For 99-cents you download songs to your computer or iPod, instead of driving to a store to pay for the whole CD.

As a result, you have more choices at lower costs. In short, supply now wags demand. And needless to say, this trend isn’t ending.

Back to Senator Obama. He just reported that he raised $25 million for his campaign. The bulk of that money, it seems to me, came from a long tail. He didn’t get that from the blockbusters – the major corporations or the wealthy. I’ll bet Halliburton isn’t listed on his FEC filings. Instead, he’s being funded in small amounts, through the Internet at times, by middle and low-salaried folk. According to early reports, Obama had almost the same amount of money as Senator Clinton but Obama had more contributors at lower amounts.

I’m still uncomfortable with anyone giving money to a campaign. But the political playing field seems more balanced when some of the small folk can be involved along with the big boys.

Obama’s fundraising feat is more than just the next step after Howard Dean’s surprising gains through Internet donations in 2004. It says, in a small way, that common folk don’t want the country bought by a few big donors and corporations. It also shows that Obama is – a long 19 months before Election Day — hitting a chord with a lot of people.

The question is this: will this money and long tail put Senator Obama in the White House? I say no.

My tell-tale (tell-tail maybe?) sign is Connecticut. Look at Ned Lamont. He won the Democratic primary over Senator Joe Lieberman, but Lieberman still won the race handily. I still think most American voters are in a similar frame of mind. We’ll look at someone tilting away from the Bush disaster. But in the final decision, we choose moderately.

The bottom line is this.  The Long Tail may not dramatically alter politics, but this internet phenomenon will create change slowly in the long run.  At worse, it will bring new voices into the political process.

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