Insanity is generally, that is to say commonly, defined as “Doing the same thing, over and over, but, expecting a different result!”  It’s one thing to make a stupid mistake – it’s very much another thing to be stupid and stubborn and insist on making the same mistake a second time.  The third time we repeat that mistake, then, we’ve gone beyond just stupid or stupid and stubborn – it is just “NUTS” – as in, “CRAZY” – as in, “INSANE!”

 

Perhaps you’ve seen the T-Shirts, Buttons and Stickers with the date 01/20/09 boldly emblazoned with the phrase “An End of An Error” as a play on the word era?  It is clear the vast majority of Americans can not wait to throw Bush officially on the historical heap.  Many will pray Bush burns in Hell for all eternity along with all his corrupt cronies!  It may well be just the end of the worst example of leadership in American history?  I am hoping it marks the beginning of the end of the corporate corruption, the lying, cheating and thieving, that has raped the American people and destroyed so many dreams forever – and caused thousands of unnecessary deaths in Iraq!

 

We’ve come full circle, after 40 years, from the lying, cheating, thieving times of rotten Republicans like Nixon in 1968, through the silly social fantasies of Reagan’s pathetic policies of 1980 such as  “Just Say No” and his delusional “Trickle Down” economic scam that set us all up for the ultimate “Ponzi scheme” were suffering from today – it is these Republican philosophies that have failed, and the corrupt Republican leadership with their mean-spirited, greed that have brought us to brink of bankruptcy – let history record that as fact jack!  The only people I know that are angrier about this ugly reality are the kind hearted, moderate, conservative Republicans in the center of their party that feel so totally betrayed by their own party – and that’s another column in the making!

 

It is a tough time, indeed, but it’s also the best time for the American people to take back their standing as citizens!  It’s a time when we can stand up, individually and together, and say “NO” and “ENOUGH” and “YES, WE CAN!”

 

As I write this piece, Early Voting has begun in the great Buckeye State of Ohio – and as the saying goes, “As Ohio goes, so goes the nation” – hopefully there will be historical changes in the Electoral Map this political cycle that will show real change is happening!

 

America is just over a month away from the November Elections – and I’m hoping more and more Americans understand we are not having just one election – there are 51 elections in the Electoral College system we use that will determine who becomes the next President and Vice-President of the United States of America – and many, many members of Congress will change – and it’s important to give due diligence to our local races too!

 

Few analysts and writers do a better job of breaking down the statistics and setting the odds better than Stuart Rothenberg.  Rothenberg has targeted the top five states, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada and Michigan to watch closely, followed by, of course, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina – and, of course, the entire nation has to watch for shenanigans in Florida – that makes a dozen states.

 

I also  watch closely what sort of trends are happening in Michigan,  Indiana, Kentucky and Tennessee to get a feel of their political pulse, and, finally, I take a good hard look at what’s changing significantly in Illinois, Missouri, Iowa and Kansas – that expands the spectrum of analysis from five to twenty states.

 

On election night I watch as the polls close and the numbers roll in from East to West, following the sunrise and sunset – well into the night, as I’ve done for nearly forty years.  But, though I’m a highly experienced political volunteer, issue advocate and activist and campaign field organizer and trainer – I am not a political scientist, so, I’m including a recent article of Stuart Rothenberg for your edification – it is well worth a close reading:

 

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What's the Top Electoral College State This Year?

By Stuart Rothenberg

 

Two months ago in this space, I identified five states that I argued would pick the next president. Tell me how these states -- Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada and Michigan -- will go in November, I wrote, and I'll tell you who will be our next president ("The Big 5: Picking the States That Will Pick the President").

As the presidential race has developed, those five states seem to hold the same predictive value now that they did then. Sure, there are a handful of additional states that could turn the election to either Democratic Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) or Republican Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) -- New Hampshire, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina -- but the longer the list, the less it tells us about who'll win.

 

I've become convinced that my initial list of five states probably can be boiled down to just one -- one state that is most likely to determine who will be the next occupant of the White House. And that state is Colorado.

 

If John McCain carries Colorado in November, I'd expect him to hold onto all of George W. Bush's 2000 states, with the exception of New Hampshire. If he does that, and if Obama holds all of Al Gore's states, plus New Hampshire, McCain would win 274 electoral votes to 264 for Obama.

 

If Obama carries the state, he has altered the arithmetic of the Electoral College so as to make it difficult for McCain to win. 

 

It's true, of course, that Obama could win Colorado and still lose the election. Republicans continue to look at Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota as possible swing states they could win to offset the loss of Colorado or Virginia. But if there is a single state among this group that is most likely to switch parties and therefore determine the winner of the presidential contest, it now appears to be the Centennial State.

 

Colorado, which generally has been characterized as a part of the conservative, Republican Mountain West, has voted Republican in nine of the past 10 presidential elections. George W. Bush carried it twice, including by 5 points in 2004.

 

But recently, the state has been trending Democratic. Democrats won a Senate seat in 2004 with Ken Salazar and the governorship two years later. With Sen. Wayne Allard (R) calling it quits, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall is a slight favorite to win the state's other Senate seat this year. And Democrats now hold majorities in both chambers of the Colorado Legislature.

 

Until late July, polling in the state showed Obama ahead, from anywhere between 2 and 9 points. But recent polling has been more mixed. Polls have generally shown one candidate or the other ahead by the low single digits, making for a race that looks to be a tossup.

 

But my confidence in these surveys is not great. A number of the surveys are automated, and some of the internals look more than a little odd. That doesn't mean the results are wrong. It just means that I don't have a great deal of confidence that they are correct.

 

One of the recent surveys, conducted on Sept. 11 by Insider Advantage, showed Obama up by 3 points. But the survey found McCain getting an unbelievable one-quarter of the African-American vote and Obama winning both men and women by an identical 49 percent to 46 percent margin.

 

Given the gender gaps everywhere -- with McCain running well ahead of Obama among men nationally, as well as in Colorado surveys conducted by Public Policy Polling (D) and even Rasmussen Reports for Fox News -- it seems unlikely that there would be no gender gap in Colorado. And if McCain wins 25 percent of the black vote anywhere, I'd be stunned.

 

Still, the state looks to be made for a tight contest. With upscale white voters who would seem likely to prefer Obama, Hispanics, Boulder liberals and plenty of swing suburbanites, Colorado looks like a one-time Republican state where Obama should have appeal.

 

One of the problems facing Obama is that the Democratic nominee for president has not won more than 47 percent of the vote in the state since 1964, when Colorado went for Lyndon Johnson (D). Bill Clinton carried the state with only 40.1 percent of the vote in a three-way race in 1992, and John Kerry drew 47 percent last time.

Of course, with Bob Barr running as a Libertarian, Cynthia McKinney as a Green and Ralph Nader as an Independent (to say nothing of the 11 other tickets on the ballot in the state), the presidential candidate who carries the state need not win a majority of the total votes cast.

 

A month from now, the national landscape could look very different. The contest for the White House might have blown wide open. But at this point, with the race looking very tight, Colorado surely is one of the key swing states, and it now looks like the best indicator of how the nation will go.

 

Stuart Rothenberg is the editor of the The Rothenberg Political Report,

 

 

 

 

 

 

and a regular columnist for Roll Call Newspaper.

 

 

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That, I believe, is probably the best take on the big national picture – so, I hope that has satiated the political wonks in my readership?  But, I find, most Americans today don’t have the time, or the inclination, to develop expertise in analyzing polls and statistics and becoming political pundits. 

 

So, what about what we, the average American and Nevadan can do here at home?

Let’s bring the scale and scope down, and talk about our home turf a moment – Nevada!

 

The Silver State has become one of the most competitive states over the most recent races for the White House, credit is due to our Senior Senator from Nevada and the Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid for getting Nevada officially designated as an Early Caucus state – so,  it has now, clearly, become a “bellwether” of the 2008 presidential election.  Nevada has now entered the national political landscape with just 5 Electoral Votes – and is at the heart of the Great South West region of America!

 

Yes, there are still plenty of conservatives and Republicans in the Silver State, many of which are very strongly influenced by Libertarian values, but Nevada also has the fastest growing population of Veterans (many of them disappointed, disillusioned, disgruntled, and frankly, fed-up with the Republican Party) and a significant growing share of Hispanics, as well as large labor union memberships and more and more moderate Democrats, not to mention a burgeoning base of Independents – and the majority of that people power rests in Southern Nevada, Clark County, Las Vegas, baby that’s where we are at!

 

Consider this, Bill Clinton carried Nevada twice – barely.  Then, Bush won Nevada in 2000 with only 49.5%  of the vote and Bush was only able to improve that margin by 1% in 2004 with 50.5% of the vote!  If Obama can win Nevada, the bell of Nevada will ring loud and clear and other red states will swing to purple and blue and Obama will be our next leader – and will hopefully get re-elected to a second term.

So, what is it, specifically, that individual Nevadan’s need to do to make change happen?

 

We, that is to say all of us individually, need to agree on just one word – ENOUGH!  Then, we must make a paradigm shift in our own thinking, by beginning to embrace the nature of change itself – by changing the way in which we think about politics in America, and changing how we think about our home state of Nevada – down to our local neighborhoods!

 

One of the most common mistakes the American citizenry make in our national elections is focusing far too much from the top down.  More people vote for President than get out and vote for Mayor – that is just NUTS!  The next mistake Americans make is focusing on other states and the various regions of America – and not, also, taking the time to focus on the fundamental reality from the bottom up – on their local neighborhood and precinct where we all truly have the greatest opportunity and degree of power to affect real change – this change in thinking is what the American people need to come to fully understand and appreciate – the very nature of change! 

 

If the American people would make this simple paradigm shift in their thinking and focus – anything would, again, be possible in America!

 

Why? 

 

The ultimate power of democracy still begins at the grass roots level in our homes, around our Kitchen tables and with our own immediate family members, and amongst our circle of friends, and acquaintances in our neighborhoods!  That’s where we need to begin, inside our own families, then to reach out to neighbors to organize, orient, train and take action!

 

We do, desperately, need Block Captains (and Lieutenants and Sergeants), working as neighborhood political activists, so we create a core of volunteers for each residential sub-division and precinct – in every precinct!  That is where the fear ends and foundation of our freedom rests!  Perhaps we’ll get there sooner under Obama’s leadership – as we have made significant progress, but first we must train all of these newly engaged voters, celebrate their excitement, focus their energy and make this very fundamental paradigm shift in our thinking that overcomes the façade of fear, hopelessness and helplessness that has paralyzed the political power of the people!

 

YES WE CAN!