Controversial Hands - Part III 

In my last two columns, I explained that my co-author Jim Brier and I are doing a reprint of our book, Middle Limit Holdem Poker, and thus have the opportunity to review and possibly change some of our answers to the many problems presented in it. The problems in this column are from a set of nine that we took another look at, since they generated a lot of debate, with various experts on each side. In the end, we dropped only one problem from the book, and did not change our answer to any of the other problems (although some were rewritten for greater clarity). Here are three of the problems that generated controversy. We start with No. 5, since hands No. 1 through No. 4 were discussed in my previous columns.

Hand No. 5 ($10-$20 game): You raise from middle position with the Q Qu after two players limp in. The button, the big blind, and the two limpers call. There is $105 in the pot and five players. The flop is K 9 5, giving you second pair (a pair higher than middle pair but lower than top pair). It is checked to you. What should you do?

Answer in book: Check. Betting after four players have checked would make more sense with your good second pair if you had not raised preflop. But the fact that you were the preflop raiser means that your opponents could be just "checking to the raiser," so a king is not denied. With four opponents, a two-flush, and king-high flop with another card within hailing distance, you should check.

What some critics said: Bet. You should not assume that your hand is no good. You don't want to give a free card to a guy with an ace or a lower pocket pair.

Our commentary: When the top card on the board is an ace or a king, and you have a pocket pair immediately below it, a free card is not as likely to hurt you. There are either no overcards or one overcard. Giving a free card with this hand type is a lot less dangerous than if you had an intermediate pair like pocket tens. Here, someone with an ace has only three outs to beat you, and someone with a pocket pair has only two outs. Surely, there is some number of opponents at which you feel it is too risky to bet with second pair. With us, that number is normally four. Adding to the problem if you bet is that the flush draw and the two cards in the playing zone make it difficult for you to know whether to bet again on the turn or not. So, you are not in a "take one stab at it" situation. You may be embarking on a voyage instead of taking a single step. Adding to the dubious character of a bet is the fact that you are the preflop raiser. Having the whole field check to you is not a similar situation to having all of them check their hands in an unraised pot. One or more of the other players may hold a quality hand here, hoping that you will be the typical preflop raiser and bet the flop. So, betting now may get you check-raised rather than a free card on the turn. For us, four opponents is too many for taking aggressive action when we have only second pair, particularly when we may be able to afford giving a free card because our pocket pair is high in rank.

Hand No. 6 ($10-$20 game): You are on the button with the A 10. Two early-position players and two middle-position players limp in. You decide to vary your play and raise. Everyone calls. There is $140 in the pot and seven players. The flop is K 9 8, giving you the nut-flush draw and an ace overcard. Everyone checks and you bet. Only an early-position player and a middle-position player call. There is $170 in the pot and three players. The turn is the 2u. It is checked to you and you bet. Both opponents call. There is $230 in the pot. The river is the 8. Both players check. What should you do?

Answer in book: Bet. With two opponents, your decent ace will most likely not be strong enough to survive a showdown. It is worth another bet to try to get middle pair or bottom pair to fold.

What some critics said: This is not a good bluff. You have two opponents. Given that they both called your turn bet, it is highly likely that at least one of them has a pair and will call you down here. This bluff might work with one opponent, since there is a reasonable chance that he may have been drawing, but with two opponents, it is highly unlikely that they both are drawing.

Our commentary: We agree that you are a heavy favorite to get called. But with $230 in the pot, your bluff can fail more than 90 percent of the time and still be profitable overall. Since you decided to bet the turn rather than take a free card, you have represented a made hand, not a draw. If you play the kind of poker we do (being circumspect about staying for the flop), you will have a tight image. This is an opportunity to make that image work for you. While we would not bluff into certain opponents in this type of situation, a bluff into typical players has a chance of success, especially since our general style of play, requiring sound starting hands, gives us a tight image.

Hand No. 7 ($20-$40 game): You are in the big blind with the A K. A middle-position player limps in, another middle-position player raises, and everyone else folds to you. You call, as does the middle limper. There is $130 in the pot and three players. The flop comes J 7 3, leaving you with two big overcards. It is checked to the preflop raiser, who bets. You call and the other player folds. There is $170 in the pot and two players. The turn is the J. What should you do?

Answer in book: Bet. This is a good time to bluff. As a caller, you have certain advantages over the raiser. Your hand is more likely to be tied in with the flop than a preflop raiser's, so you should be quick to represent something on the board on the turn or the river. Here, you can represent trip jacks, since you called out of your blind and your opponent does not figure to have a jack. If he raises, you can fold. But he will frequently fold, fearing that he is playing with only two outs if he has a pocket pair, or no outs if he has two overcards. (The confrontation of A-K vs. A-K is fairly common in hold'em, and lots of them are not split pots.)

What some critics said: This is not a good spot for a bluff. If you had a jack, why wouldn't you have bet the flop with top pair? Your bet looks very suspicious, and will almost always get called. If you were going to bluff, you should have led or check-raised the flop. If you want to bluff on the turn, you would be better off checking to your opponent and then check-raising him if he bets. This is a much more powerful move and gives you a better chance of winning the pot. If he checks it back, you have been given a free card and know that he is unlikely to have an overpair, so your A-K may be good.

Our commentary: It is true that if holding top pair or better, we would be likely to make a play for the pot on the flop with a bet or check-raise. How well does our opponent know our style of play? There are many players who could be holding a jack here. So, the question becomes, who are we in the pot with, and how well does he know our game? We also must make the point that an opponent who is suspicious of our betting still may fold. How many times have you heard in a poker game, "I don't believe you, but I don't have anything," and the opponent folds. So, a bluff is reasonable against the typical player. We think the critics are right in one sense. By check-raising the flop or even the turn, you may well paint a more convincing picture of having a jack. If we knew that jack was coming, we would have check-raised on the flop. But we did not know, and should not necessarily give up the idea of using that jack because we did not lead-bet or check-raise. Against an astute opponent who knows how we play, the critics may be right. But in a $20-$40 game against a nondescript opponent, bluffing here is very reasonable.