Controversial Hands - Conclusion

In my last three columns, I explained that my co-author Jim Brier and I are doing a reprint of our book, Middle Limit Holdem Poker, and thus have the opportunity to review and possibly change some of our answers to the many problems in it. The problems in this column are from a set of nine that we took another look at, since they generated a lot of debate, with various experts on each side. Here are two of those problems that generated controversy. We discuss No. 8 and No. 9, since hands No. 1 through No. 7 were discussed in my previous columns.

Hand No. 8 ($10-$20 game): You raise from middle position with the A K after an early-position player limps in. Two middle-position players call, as does the early-position limper. There is $95 in the pot and four players. The flop arrives with the 9 7 3, leaving you with two big overcards. The early-position player checks, you bet, and one of the middle-position players calls. There is $115 in the pot and two players. The turn is the A, giving you top pair, top kicker. You bet and get raised. What should you do?

Answer in book: Fold. Similar to many problems in this chapter, when you get raised on the turn, you are almost always beat when having one pair. (On occasion, you are up against a tricky player who likes to semibluff draws on the expensive street.) There is $175 in the pot and it costs you $20 to call. These are pot odds of 9-to-1. If your opponent is raising with aces up, the number of outs you have depends upon his second pair. If he has aces and nines, you have three outs (any king). With aces and sevens, you have six outs (any king or 9). With aces and treys, you have nine outs (any king, 9, or 7). So, one might conclude that, on average, you have about six outs, which is a 7-to-1 shot, and therefore you have a call. However, if your opponent does have two pair, you do not know which two they are, and thus may lose additional money on the river. Furthermore, your opponent may have a set, in which case you are drawing dead. Since he cold-called your preflop raise, he is more likely to have done this with a hand like 9-9, 7-7, 3-3, or A-9 than some other holding.

What some critics have said: Once your opponents realize that you are willing to fold top pair, top kicker on the turn in a heads-up situation after getting raised or check-raised, the more observant ones will simply start taking pots away from you. In middle-limit games, you run into players who make bets and raises on the turn, hoping to get their opponents to fold better hands.

Commentary: The key to this problem is knowing your opponent. Obviously, if he is aware that you are willing to make big laydowns when pressured, the critics are right. But against "typical" opponents who are playing their cards, it has been our experience (especially in $10-$20 games) that raises or check-raises on the turn almost always mean two pair or better. Oftentimes, the player flopped two pair, or even a set, and was simply waiting until fourth street to pounce. In writing a book, you try to teach the basics of what bets and raises typically signify. If you know that your particular opponent is tricky and capable of making semibluff raises on the expensive street, you may have to simply pay him off.

One critic said that our strategy here is an "exploitable strategy." He meant that such a strategy is not in accordance with game theory, and can be taken advantage of by an aware opponent. He most certainly is right, but this does not mean we are wrong. Most people do not turn loose of top pair on the turn when raised. The opponent normally does not know you may do so. The fact is, it can easily be a poker mistake to play according to game theory. To do so means you are not optimizing your play against an opponent who does not play according to game theory. As this pertains to our situation here, when you are raised on the turn, you are going to run into a big hand more often than game theory would dictate. (I note that our "exploitable strategy" critic is a player from Vegas, a place where you are more likely to run into a sophisticated opponent who has some tricky moves.) So, in most poker games, you are supposed to fold more often than game theory would dictate. Poker is not a game in which you stick to a certain strategy regardless of whom you face or the character of a particular game. Frankly, top players fold more often than they are "supposed to," because they know when they have likely run into a big hand.

Hand No. 9 ($10-$20 game): You limp in from under the gun with the 9 9. An early-position player, a middle-position player, the cutoff, the button, and the small blind call. There is $70 in the pot and seven players. The flop is 8 6 5, giving you an overpair and a gutshot-straight draw. Both blinds check and you bet. The early-position player, the middle-position player, the cutoff, and the small blind call. There is $120 in the pot and five players. The turn is the 8. The small blind checks. What should you do?

Answer in book: Check. With the top flop card now pairing and four opponents, the likelihood of someone having trip eights is simply too high to be leading off here. You should check and probably fold if someone bets.

What some critics have said: Many top players thought that you should bet the turn. If someone had a top pair of eights on the flop, they might have raised. You are very vulnerable to overcards, and can represent an 8 since you bet the flop. You also should call if you check and someone else bets, since by checking, you are telling the table you are scared. Your gutshot-straight draw gives you four more outs even when you are beat.

Commentary: It is not at all clear that someone with an 8 would have raised your flop bet. Given the large field and the fact that you are leading into it, an opponent with an 8 might well just call, fearing that he is out-kicked, or that one of his many opponents has a better hand. This would be especially true if he were in late position after several players had called, since he could not eliminate anyone by raising. A possible straight on the board puts a damper on the betting of a one-pair hand. Even if no one has the straight yet, you may have to take some heat in the betting, and one pair is in danger of getting locked out of the pot on the next card.

The biggest hallmark of our teaching is to pay close attention to the number of people in the pot, and vary your strategy accordingly. You face four opponents. You are not supposed to play this hand the same way you would if facing two opponents, or perhaps even three. Try to picture what this many opponents might have, given that they all called a flop bet with a board of 8-6-5 rainbow. It is highly unlikely that no one has an 8, or simply a better hand.

Even with hindsight, and input from some fine players, we have decided in our reprinting to stick to our guns with our answers on all but one problem in our book. But, we have improved the explanations in some of our problems after getting feedback from so many of you. This will make our reprint even better than our well-received first run of Middle Limit Holdem Poker. So, we want to thank all readers and Internet posters who provided constructive criticisms of our book, some of which we now have incorporated.

We think a lot can be learned from the discussion of poker situations in which experts may disagree. We hope you have both enjoyed and benefited from this four-part series on controversial hands from our book.