Milking a Cow

A fairly common situation

I was e-mailed the following hand by a student of mine who understands poker well, but has only a moderate amount of experience with no-limit hold'em. This is a fine instructional hand, because the situation is fairly common and the solution is a mathematical one that can be easily applied to similar situations. My comments are interjected throughout, as appropriate.

Poker Student: This is a $1-$2 no-limit hold'em game, and I have about a $300 stack. I am on the button with the A 4. An early-position player and a middle-position player limp in. I decide to vary my play and raise to $15.

Bob Ciaffone: This play, varying the type of hand with which you raise when in position, meets with my approval, and a suited ace is a fine type of hand with which to do it, perhaps the best one. If you flop the nut-flush draw and play it strongly, your opponents will put you on a different type of hand.

PS: The game is passive and I have a good chance of picking up the pot. If I get called, I have position and can take a free card if I wish, since these guys like to "check to the raiser." Only the middle-position player calls. He has a $300 stack and is a local. There is $35 in the pot and two of us in the hand. The flop is Q 7 2, giving me the nut-flush draw with an overcard. My opponent checks. I make a continuation-bet of $20. My opponent may fold, and I have 12 outs if he doesn't. He raises to $50. The raise is worrisome, since these guys don't check-raise with drawing hands. He could have a set or a big queen. If he has a set, I would think it would be sevens or deuces, not queens, since he did not raise preflop. With $105 in the pot, I call for $30 more. There is $135 in the pot.

BC: I would treat his small raise size as a probe, and go all in. If he has a set, you are a big underdog, but the last thing that I put a heads-up opponent on is a set. He is less than even money to have a pocket pair, and will flop a set with it about one time out of eight. So, before any betting action after the flop, I figure it is about 20-1 that my opponent flopped a set. (Of course, once he starts putting money into the pot, those odds shorten.) Your opponent may have K-Q, and now has a big problem. If he calls, you are in no worse shape than if you had folded to his raise.

PS: The turn is the 3, giving me the nuts. He checks. I bet $60, because I want to get some value out of my good hands and not make too big a bet that may cause my opponent to fold. My opponent calls. There is now $255 in the pot.

BC: The pot is big enough when you hit the nut flush ($135) to make your goal be busting your opponent. Each of you has put $65 into the pot already, so you both have $235 left. In this situation, you must bet at least half of your remaining money. Pick a round number that is just over half. So, you should bet $125. Remember this math rule, as this situation is very common and will come up many times during your poker career. The elements of this situation (the turn betting round, one opponent, and a big pot under way) are:

1. You have either the nuts or a hand so big that the proper procedure is to play your opponent for having a worse hand than yours (for example, middle set).

2. You not only are committed to the pot now, but will play for all of your money no matter what comes on the river.

3. You are not going to try to protect your hand. This might be because he has few or no outs, but it also might be because if he has the hand you fear, you cannot run him off it.

4. Your opponent has a made hand rather than a draw.

PS: The river is the 7, pairing the board. My opponent comes out betting $100. I call with $355 in the pot. He wins, having the Q Q for a full house. Should I have bet more or even gone all in on the turn?

BC: Look at the various hands that your opponent might hold and how he will play them on the turn:

• Three queens, or any set: He will call an all-in bet.

• A flush: He will call any bet. On the end, if the board pairs, he will probably call any bet. If he has a small flush, he probably would have raised a turn bet all in, to protect against your having a big pair with a diamond. However, some people are both stupid and passive, so you cannot count on that and must bet a decent amount.

• Top pair or a slow-played overpair: This is the hand you are trying to milk. Again, you need to bet enough to get him married to his hand, while partially protecting against a fourth diamond arriving, which would normally cripple your market.

• A bluff with something less than the above: He is done with it unless he has the K, in which case you have to bet, as I have indicated.

Now you see the basis for betting a little more than half of your remaining amount of money in this type of situation. It is the best bet size when your opponent holds top pair, an overpair, or a bluff that contains the K.

Before I conclude this column, I'd like to discuss a situation in which you should not bet slightly more than half of the pot on the turn when holding a very powerful hand. If your opponent could have a draw that threatens you, put the hammer down and move all in. (A set or two pair is not to be considered a draw in this context; it is a made hand hoping to improve by filling.) You may get called by a big draw or someone who is mathematically inept, hotly steaming, or just curious. He could even have a strong hand that merits a call but is losing to your powerhouse. If you have twice the size of the pot or less left to bet, go ahead and move in. Even if you do not snare your opponent into making a call, you have prevented the drawout or deprived the draw of the leverage furnished by being able to bet on the end.