Alright already! I get the message! Enough of this stock market babble, enough environmentally and politically correct rhetoric. We want the important stuff! We want football; we want winners, and we want them now! This is basically what I've been hearing from those of you who know me so I will do my best to accommodate you. Despite the fact that I have been handicapping the NFL for some 28 years now and have grown a bit tired of it as a result, perhaps I can be of some help as the season winds down to its final month and subsequent playoffs.

No, I won't be making any individual selections or rash predictions, after all it wouldn't take Nostradamus to foresee the celebration in Indianapolis on Super Bowl Sunday; but, I have uncovered some traps over the years which I may be able to help you avoid. There is a tendency among sports bettors (both professional and otherwise) to focus their attention on the teams who "need" to win. While those teams will certainly be trying and while in many cases the opposition will have already been eliminated from playoff contention, this affords no guarantees. Remember, the line-maker is aware of said situations and will compensate with an inflated number on the "motivated" team. Ergo, if you bet on said contender you pay the price in the line. The line is the great equalizer! Also keep in mind that athletes are human: they feel the pressure in these "need-to-win" situations and while the great ones thrive, many are "mentally" not up to the task. On the other hand the athletes on the "unmotivated" team are loose as a goose, and have nothing to lose. Many would like nothing better than to play the spoiler role and knock their opponent out of the playoffs (if only to deprive them of the extra money they themselves have no chance to earn.) This by no means should deter one from betting the contender if you determine that there is value in doing so; the problem is that most often (because of the inflated line) the value is with the other side.

Although I have always considered myself a handicapper who focuses on the mental side of the game as opposed to the technical and statistical aspects there is one inescapable trend occurring this season in the NFL which cannot be ignored. Where favorites have historically covered the "spread" roughly 47% of the time over the years; this years figure (much to most local sports books chagrin) is approaching an almost statistically impossible 65%. This is too great an anomaly to be ignored; and while there is no law that says such a streak can't continue, I tend to believe that it won't. Its almost like "what goes up must come down" thinking of it in simplistic terms. So while it may not happen this season, you can rest assured that a return to the statistical norm will occur at some point in the not too distant future.

Hopefully this article will prove helpful to those of you who make the occasional football wager. Do your homework, don't be swayed into automatically playing the side with a future and perhaps now more than ever, give the underdog a long hard look. Now get out there and have some fun while punishing your bookmaker.

Go Lions!!!